I am someone who sees opportunities everywhere and wants to get involved in many projects.
When you expand you will always have growing pains.
There are known unknowns, but also unknown unknowns.
Part of it is like cutting and bulking. It’s a natural cycle and probably optimum to go through periods of growth followed by scaling back, followed by growth.
Now that I am in the period of cutting back to prepare for further growth, I am finding myself tempted by opportunities everywhere.
The answer is not to repeat the process but to improve the filter for what you do and don’t do. As you grow, the opportunities multiply, and so it’s necessary to say NO to most things. Remember that the opportunities you see now, are nothing compared to those that will come up.
Here are some questions in the filter:
- Market – Is the market growing and doing well and will be big? Are there already established big players in the market doing well? If not, that’s probably a sign of something. What can I learn from the big players?
- Product Market Fit – this is a pull from the market. When you have it, you know it.
- If I started from 0, would I do it again? Knowing what I know now. Avoid the sunk costs.
- Scalability / Freedom: Does it free me up to do more great work? Is it expansive?
- Core Talent: Does it use my unique skills? and my core talents?
- Leverage / Flywheel: Is the reward asymmetric? Does it build a flywheel of leverage? Asymmetry test – how much effort to reward?
- Energy: Is it a ‘Hell Yeah’? Does it give me energy.
- Quality: Will I do great work that I am proud of?
- Learning and Improving – Will it make me better? Will I learn?
- Values – Is it 100% aligned with my values?
- Are there any hidden costs?
Here are some thought experiments to decide. Thought experiments are incredible for thinking more clearly.
- Three year focus – if I had to do only this for 5 years. Would I do it?
- The 3 Year Success Disaster – if this was a massive 10x success, would I enjoy it? We often fall in love with the idea of success without considering its consequences.
- The New CEO – if you hired the best CEO in the world (A more advanced Alien or super-smart AI), what would they do? What would they stop, and what direction would they take it in?
- 15 year old and 80 year old me – what would they think of it?
- Imaginary board of directors – ask some of the greats in history like Ben Franklin what they would say.
These can be helpful, but sometimes you’ve got to just not think too much and just take action.
