“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.” – Native American Proverb
“The youth of today are the leaders of tomorrow.” – Nelson Mandela
I was in Istanbul recently. It has many thousands of years and it was fascinating learning about it’s history. It was once Constantinople, the capital of the East Roman empire. one of the world’s leading cities. Now it wouldn’t be classed as a leading city. Just like Ancient Greece, Athens, and Rome, they had a period of rise and decline.
The decline is important to study, so we can learn from it. What happens when societies decline? It happens gradually over generations, and one of the principle forces that declines happen is that talent leaves to go somewhere with more opportunity, and excellent leaders have fewer children, so when they die, their knowledge and skills dies with them, it doesn’t carry on.
The decline of great cities and societies is often a gradual process, akin to the slow movement of a glacier. It’s not typically marked by a singular, catastrophic event but rather unfolds over time, with subtle shifts that may go unnoticed in the short term. This slow but powerful process can be likened to the imperceptible growth of a tree or the erosion of a mountain.
As we emerge from the last few years, we have what is called the forgotten generation. As the societies and structures have changed, we’ve seen a number of changes that has had a profound effect on the younger generation.
This can be seen profoundly in the decline in birth rates worldwide.
Birth rates are in Decline, and this is a serious problem. We can’t solve it by immigration, that is outsourcing the problem, and causing other negative consequences.
The reason that birth rates are in decline is simply because, on a biological level, young people are not better off, they do not feel abundant, there are not enough resources for them to expand.
In ecology, the concept of “carrying capacity” is used to describe the maximum population size of a species that an environment can sustain indefinitely, given the available resources. When resources are abundant, populations can grow and approach the carrying capacity, while scarcity of resources can lead to population decline.
Amidst debates on fears of British depopulation, Benjamin Franklin collected statistics of the American colonies which he published in his Poor Richard Improved of 1750 with the question of “how long will it be, before by an Increase of 64 per Annum, 34,000 people will double themselves?” He concluded: “People increase faster by Generation in these Colonies, where all can have full Employ, and there is Room and Business for Millions yet unborn. For in old settled Countries, as England for instance, as soon as the Number of People is as great as can be supported by all the Tillage, Manufactures, Trade and Offices of the Country, the Over-plus must quit the Country, or they will perish by Poverty, Diseases, and want of Necessaries. Marriage too, is discouraged, many declining it, till they can see how they shall be able to maintain a Family.” In 1751, Franklin wrote his Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc. proposing a 25-year doubling period in the colonies, an exponential growth in population. Over the following century, this forecast was remarkably accurate. His paper was widely circulated, and had considerable influence: Malthus cited the period as “a rate in which all concurring testimonies agree.”[15] Franklin’s view was optimistic:
There is, in short, no bound to the prolific nature of plants or animals, but what is made by their crowding and interfering with each other’s means of subsistence. Was the face of Earth vacant of other plants, it might be gradually sowed and overspread with one kind only, as, for instance, with fennel; and, were it empty of other inhabitants, it might in a few ages be replenished from one nation only, as, for instance, with Englishmen.[16]
Those migrating to America would “have their places at home soon supplied” and “increase so largely here” that there was no need for other immigrants.[16]
The reason is because of the following:
Aging Societies and the Emphasis on Social Security
In recent decades, we’ve witnessed significant changes in the fabric of our societies, with far-reaching implications for younger generations, and our future. As populations have gotten older, governments grow larger and societal priorities shift, the landscape of opportunity has transformed, leaving many young people feeling sidelined in the quest for prime real estate and financial stability.
One of the most pronounced changes has been the aging of populations in developed countries.
This demographic shift has led to increased pressure on social security systems, as a larger proportion of the population enters retirement age. The focus has naturally gravitated towards ensuring stability and security for the aging population, often at the expense of investment in areas that might fuel growth and opportunity for the younger generation.
In 1850, the UK government spending was 10% or less of GDP.
The Expansion of Government and Its Consequences
As governments have expanded their role in society, there’s a growing sense that they have become less efficient and more bureaucratic. This expansion often means increased regulation and taxation, which can stifle entrepreneurship and innovation. For young people eager to make their mark, these barriers can be disheartening and can dampen the spirit of risk-taking and ambition that drives economic growth and personal advancement.
The Shift Towards Consumerism
The post-World War II era saw a significant shift towards consumerism, driven by factors such as the rise of mass media, the expansion of credit, and the growth of a middle class with disposable income. This shift has had profound effects on societal values, with an increasing emphasis on material success and instant gratification. For the younger generation, this can translate into a focus on acquiring material possessions rather than investing in long-term assets like real estate.
Globalisation and Obsession with GDP economic growth
The impact of globalization and economic policies such as money printing and hidden taxation further exacerbates the challenges faced by the younger generation. Globalization, while offering opportunities for economic growth and cultural exchange, has also led to increased competition, job displacement, and wage stagnation in some sectors. The trend towards outsourcing and offshoring has particularly affected young workers, who often find themselves competing in a global job market. Additionally, the practice of printing money, or quantitative easing, by central banks to stimulate the economy can lead to inflation and the devaluation of savings, disproportionately affecting those with limited financial resources. Hidden taxation, such as inflation and indirect taxes, can further erode purchasing power and contribute to economic inequality. These factors, combined with the other societal shifts, create a complex landscape that young people must navigate to achieve financial stability and success.
The Way Forward
To what extent is a western democracy a short term tug of war over allocating resources vs working together using collective to make smarter decisions that makes the group better off?
We need to work together to solve this issue. Whats good for the beehive is good for the bee.
“Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.” – James Bovard
“In a democracy, the individual enjoys not only the ultimate power but carries the ultimate responsibility.” – Norman Cousins
“The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt
Addressing these challenges requires a reevaluation of societal priorities and government policies.
- We need to recognise that it is a problem – the first step starts with recognising the situation and
- Promote Economic Reforms: Implement economic policies that encourage growth, innovation, and entrepreneurship. This includes reducing unnecessary regulations, simplifying tax systems, and providing support for small businesses and startups.
- Invest in Education and Skills Training: Focus on equipping the younger generation with the skills and knowledge needed for the jobs of the future. This includes not only traditional education but also vocational training, apprenticeships, and lifelong learning initiatives.
- Enhance Access to Affordable Housing: Implement policies that increase the supply of affordable housing, such as incentivizing the construction of affordable units, providing subsidies for first-time homebuyers, and promoting alternative housing models like co-housing and shared equity schemes.
- Reform Social Security Systems: Address the sustainability of social security systems by exploring options such as diversifying investment portfolios, encouraging private savings, and gradually adjusting retirement ages in line with life expectancy.
- Foster Family-Friendly Policies: Encourage policies that support families and make it easier for young people to start and raise families, such as parental leave, flexible work arrangements, and accessible childcare services.
- Address Globalization and Job Security: Implement policies that protect workers from the negative impacts of globalization, such as retraining programs for displaced workers, support for industries affected by offshoring, and fair trade agreements.
- Combat Consumerism and Promote Sustainable Living: Encourage a cultural shift towards valuing long-term well-being and sustainability over short-term consumption. This can be supported by education, awareness campaigns, and incentives for sustainable practices.
- Encourage Intergenerational Solidarity: Promote initiatives that foster understanding and cooperation between generations, such as mentorship programs, community service projects, and intergenerational living arrangements.
- Address Monetary Policies and Inflation: Ensure that monetary policies, such as quantitative easing, are carefully managed to avoid long-term inflationary pressures and protect the purchasing power of the younger generation.
- Promote Global Cooperation: Work towards international cooperation to address global challenges that impact the younger generation, such as climate change, migration, and economic inequality.
In conclusion, the forgotten generation faces unique challenges in a world where societal values and government priorities have shifted. By recognizing these issues and taking steps to address them, we can ensure that the younger generation has the opportunity to succeed and contribute to a prosperous and dynamic society.
